Does a lower (higher) labour force participation rate imply greater (lower) income tax evasion? An exploratory empirical inquiry for the U.S.

This exploratory study seeks to add to the income tax evasion literature by investigating a heretofore ignored potential determinant of aggregate federal personal income tax evasion in the U.S., namely, the labour force participation rate. It is hypothesized that the higher (lower) the labour force participation rate, the lower (greater) the degree of tax evasion. The empirical estimation supports this hypothesis, finding that a one unit (one percentage point) increase (decrease) in the labour force participation rate leads to a 9.1% decrease (increase) in income tax evasion. Thus, the declining labour force participation in recent years implies increased tax evasion problems for the U.S.     

FINANCE,DISTRIBUTION AND THE ECONOMIC OBJECTIVE OF FINANCIAL COOPERATIVE INSTITUTIONS

This paper proposes a model where the structure rather than the size of the financial sector explains its influence on income distribution. Because of information asymmetries, a financial sector dominated solely by profit‐maximizing financial intermediaries will increase income and wealth inequality as it gives preferential access to credit for high‐income agents, whereas a diversified inclusive financial sector with alternative models of finance, like cooperatives, will reduce the inequality gap. No full convergence in income distribution can be realized through finance only and there is still a need for redistribution policies. Accordingly, an objective function for cooperative financial institutions should define a desired pricing behaviour that can increase the income of members at a rate higher than the average growth rate of the economy.     

Determinants in the forecast of the gross national income of China and India from 1952 to 2015

In 2015, China and India's population represented approximately 35.74% of the total number of people living in the world. Due to the historical context and behavior of the most relevant indicators, this study proposes to utilize a wide variety of demographic, economic, and production indicators from 1952 to 2015 to assess their impact on the GNI in China and India. A comprehensive and new fangled modeling process with stepwise, regularization and distributed lag regression approaches is presented. Accordingly, theoretical results were corroborated through extensive diagnostic tests and an empirical check of the models' predictive capacity. The findings show that GNI in China is most influenced by variables such as reserves in foreign currency and the dependency ratio; whereas, variables of energy production and birth rate were generated for India. Therefore, it's the timing for China to relax the universal two-child policy. Due to the current value below the substitution rate, a gloomy outlook for China's future population and economy is predicted. Conversely, a positive outlook is forecasted for India, given the low price in the future of oil- India's primary raw material.     

M5 competition uncertainty: Overdispersion,distributional forecasting,GAMLSS, and beyond

The M5 competition uncertainty track aims for probabilistic forecasting of sales of thousands of Walmart retail goods. We show that the M5 competition data face strong overdispersion and sporadic demand, especially zero demand. We discuss modeling issues concerning adequate probabilistic forecasting of such count data processes. Unfortunately, the majority of popular prediction methods used in the M5 competition (e.g. lightgbm and xgboost GBMs) fail to address the data characteristics, due to the considered objective functions. Distributional forecasting provides a suitable modeling approach to overcome those problems. The GAMLSS framework allows for flexible probabilistic forecasting using low-dimensional distributions. We illustrate how the GAMLSS approach can be applied to M5 competition data by modeling the location and scale parameters of various distributions, e.g. the negative binomial distribution. Finally, we discuss software packages for distributional modeling and their drawbacks, like the R package gamlss with its package extensions, and (deep) distributional forecasting libraries such as TensorFlow Probability.     

Performance effects of innovation in two-sided markets: The paradigmatic case of OTAs

Online Travel Agents (OTAs) play an important intermediary role in the two-sided travel distribution market. A critical factor that enhances a firm's competitive advantage is innovation. Yet, the analysis of innovation in the OTA context is scarce. The main objective of this article is to fill this gap and examine the effect of OTA innovations on firm performance. We analyze the effect of two-sided market specific innovations (same-side and cross-side) on performance and contribute to the literature by expanding the theoretical understanding of innovations. We find that producer-to-consumer innovations have a greater effect on OTA performance than producer-to-producer and consumer-to-consumer innovations. A fundamental managerial implication is that exchange management is an area to be enhanced when innovating in travel market distribution.     

The income elasticity gap and its implications for economic growth and tourism development: the Balearic vs the Canary Islands

ABSTRACT

The Balearic and the Canary Islands are two well-known tourism-led economies. They both experienced a tourism boom during the same decades, and, hence, they developed a similar productive-mix. Nevertheless, there are strong economic differences between the two regions. While the Balearic Islands enjoy a high GDP per capita, the Canary Islands show a more modest performance. The results of a panel data regression confirm our hypothesis that they differ substantially in terms of income elasticity of tourism. It is two times higher in the Balearic Islands than in the Canaries, which indicates the first is perceived as a more luxurious destination. Furthermore, the results of a dynamic computable general equilibrium model show that the Canaries would converge in GDP per capita with the Balearic Islands if they attracted tourists with a similar profile as the latter.     

Trade liberalization and wage inequality: Evidence from Korea

This paper investigates the heterogeneous income distribution effects of trade liberalization using Korean survey data from years of 2000–2015. Following the Stolper-Samuelson theorem most of previous research studying the effects of trade liberalization on wage differences focus on workers’ characteristics (e.g., skilled or unskilled) while heterogeneity within the same worker group has not been yet substantially investigated. To fill this gap, this paper provides empirical evidence of wage inequality across firms within the same group of workers caused by trade liberalization, potentially implied in the new-new trade models with firm heterogeneity. Employing a difference-in-differences (DID) specification, we find that the wages of unskilled workers in Korea have increased since its FTAs with more advanced countries, such as members of EU and the US, came into effect, while the effects on the wages of skilled workers are negative but not statistically significant. We also show that wage effects are heterogeneous across firms within unskilled and skilled worker groups, while the positive effects are statistically significant and largest for unskilled workers in medium-large sized firms. These findings are in line with both traditional and new-new trade models.     

我国“一带一路”沿线地区风险投资时空分布及影响因素研究

深入分析我国“一带一路”沿线地区风险投资时空格局及影响因素，有助于促进创新创业与企业发展、提高区域科技创新水平。运用空间分析方法和空间计量模型，对2003-2018年我国“一带一路”沿线139个城市风险投资的时空分布特征及影响因素进行分析，结果表明：①沿线地区的风险投资发展具有不均衡性，呈现为沿海高、西部低的分异格局；②风险投资的全局自相关系数均为正，呈现出明显的空间集聚特征；③风险投资机构数、国家高新区数量、风险投资退出、政府引导基金发展、财政科技支出对区域风险投资具有显著促进作用，环境污染对风险投资有一定抑制作用。随着ESG投资理念逐渐获得认可，沿线地区可以通过提升绿色发展水平促进风险投资发展。     

Migration,population aging,and income inequality in China

In this study, we examine the effects of four demographic factors, namely, birth, death, natural aging, and net migration, on population aging and income inequality in China. We use the official Chinese data and the China Household Income Project Survey data for the 2007–2013 period and apply a decomposition model based on the Shapley method. Unlike previous studies, we include migration in our decomposition model and find that natural aging is the primary factor contributing to population aging in both urban and rural areas. Further, migration may accelerate population aging in rural areas. Moreover, migration contributes to reducing income inequality in urban areas, while widening income inequality in rural areas. The effect of migration is larger than those of birth, death, and natural aging on income inequality. The robustness checks confirm these conclusions.     

Does more finance mean more inequality in times of crisis?

Many recent empirical studies show that both banking crises and financial development (FD) play an important role in understanding the dynamics of income inequality (IncI) over the last decades. However, so far no study has investigated the role of FD in the amplification of IncI following banking crises. This paper seeks to address this issue based on a sample of 69 banking crises in 54 countries over the 1977–2013 period. Our analysis suggests that FD is associated with a significant increase in IncI in the aftermath of banking crises. This result is robust to a broad range of alternative specifications and is unaffected by various potential sources of endogeneity. We also show that the relationship between FD and the redistributive consequences of banking crises is not subject to a threshold effect and is stronger for developing countries.